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金融危机时期,大家怎么处理外汇收入?
Thread poster: TRANS4CHINA
Julia Zou
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我不是高人 Oct 27, 2008

Mingle Ji wrote:

这些内容也是我网上看到的,今天现汇买入价又降了,是不是时候该把美元卖掉了,我也是在这等高人出来解答。


首先声明我不是高人,只有1米6。:)
我在天涯的“国际观察”上看金融高人们分析说美元暂时还比较稳定,也许会有小幅升值,但明年肯定会一直跌下去。欧元、英镑会继续跌,澳元会在跌倒一定的低点后回升,但不会升到以前的高度了。
大家有兴趣可以看看这两个帖子:
1.从澳大利亚看本次金融危机中的货币战争

http://www.xhclub.net/forum/viewthread.php?tid=40383&extra=page=1
2.08年中美国运大预测
http://cache.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/worldlook/1/188600.shtml

这两贴对中国的未来发展相当乐观,只不过对我们这些赚外币的人来说,随着外币的贬值以及欧美经济危机的进一步恶化,赚外币会更难一些了。但是,随着中国国力的增强,各国与中国的交往日益频繁,我们这些翻译的活儿也许会大量增加吧。


 
Milton Guo
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人民币更不可靠吧 Oct 28, 2008

美元还是避风港.

只是欧元英镑跌得太快了,前一个月还1英镑可换2美元,瞬间就成了1.5了,想想以前还有人建议把贬值的美元全换成欧元存款,真是后怕.

人民币更不经风浪,我不懂外汇,但记得有专家说过,危机时期,还是存有黄金挂勾的货币为好,如美元\欧元等.


 
LIZ LI
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well Oct 28, 2008

有听过另外一种说法,说是人民币不愿意升值,美元来硬的行不通,所以便曲线救国,先涨后跌~~~

非常庆幸这趟出来之前换的是美元^0^~~~

太复杂的mecanism我是肯定不懂的,不过以前在的公司在中国决定采取一篮子货币政策取代原来的跟美元直接挂钩的政策以后,就在quote上面加上一条:根据外汇牌价会有5%~10%的调整。(公司是用港币和美元报价的)

[修改时间: 2008-10-28 21:24]


 
isahuang
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现在人民币有回归盯美元的势头 Oct 29, 2008

lilianleelala wrote:

有听过另外一种说法,说是人民币不愿意升值,美元来硬的行不通,所以便曲线救国,先涨后跌~~~

非常庆幸这趟出来之前换的是美元^0^~~~

太复杂的mecanism我是肯定不懂的,不过以前在的公司在中国决定采取一篮子货币政策取代原来的跟美元直接挂钩的政策以后,就在quote上面加上一条:根据外汇牌价会有5%~10%的调整。(公司是用港币和美元报价的)

[修改时间: 2008-10-28 21:24]


今天中国又降息了,有配合美联储的意思。


 
allankliu
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我的愚见 Oct 31, 2008

我的意见往往是真正的愚见,愚蠢的见解。大家反过来理解往往正确。

我2007年将部分美元收入投入美股(INTEL+EWT台湾股票指数),部分美元收入入外汇实盘,部分人民币入A股,部分人民币入黄金现货,部分人民币入基金。

最后结果是美股跌50%,外汇在初期很顺利,危机期间发觉自己脑子锈逗,无法跟上大起大落的局势,被反复正反扇了几次耳光后,现在
... See more
我的意见往往是真正的愚见,愚蠢的见解。大家反过来理解往往正确。

我2007年将部分美元收入投入美股(INTEL+EWT台湾股票指数),部分美元收入入外汇实盘,部分人民币入A股,部分人民币入黄金现货,部分人民币入基金。

最后结果是美股跌50%,外汇在初期很顺利,危机期间发觉自己脑子锈逗,无法跟上大起大落的局势,被反复正反扇了几次耳光后,现在一颗红心两手准备(一半瑞郎,一半美元,还好事前抛弃了澳元),A股到大腿了,基金定投不是很担心,黄金賺钱了!

建议可以操作黄金美元品种(记住,永远不要满仓!)。本年度,黄金一天最大的涨跌幅记录也有4%左右,更加不要作黄金期货,尤其是和欧美有时差的期货,4%放大50倍也让你立马暴仓!

如果是嗜好高风险的,机会有的是。不过,我相信译者中嗜好风险品投资的应该不多,大家都是辛辛苦苦一个字一个字打出来的。

换成人民币也是不错选择,如果可以换回外汇的话。在国内依然还是有些麻烦。

[Edited at 2008-10-31 01:36]
Collapse


 
CHEN-Ling
CHEN-Ling  Identity Verified
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欧元还有没有可能涨到10以上? Oct 31, 2008

记得4月份的时候欧元兑人民币还是10.86的汇率,当时头脑发热存了一份小额的定期。这一下欧元汇率猛跌到8点几,一下子蒸发掉3000多大元......心痛啊!
欧元还能否见涨?如果能再涨回去,我现在就大量购置欧元,等涨了后再换成人民币,将损失的那部分给捞回来,说不定还能赚呢!很期待。。。


[Edited at 2008-10-31 03:53]


 
Milton Guo
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据说欧元会和美元持平 Oct 31, 2008

所以趁最近反弹,最好兑换成美元

降得太快,降得心疼


 
isahuang
isahuang
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歐元近期肯定還會降, Oct 31, 2008

Mincho Young wrote:

记得4月份的时候欧元兑人民币还是10.86的汇率,当时头脑发热存了一份小额的定期。这一下欧元汇率猛跌到8点几,一下子蒸发掉3000多大元......心痛啊!
欧元还能否见涨?如果能再涨回去,我现在就大量购置欧元,等涨了后再换成人民币,将损失的那部分给捞回来,说不定还能赚呢!很期待。。。


[Edited at 2008-10-31 03:53]


下周歐洲央行會降息,歐元會有一個knee jerk reaction,會下降。而且接下來的幾個月,歐洲央行還得繼續降息,所以短期内,歐元不看好。人民幣現在基本是盯美元,美元對歐元升的話,人民幣自然也升。


 
Milton Guo
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换了 Nov 1, 2008

前天欧元对美元还是1.25,今天已经是1.24(PP兑换率)了,我赶紧把PayPal上的欧元换成美元了.

英镑更惨,幸好MB收到英镑时,自动兑换成美元,不然会更心疼.


 
Jianjun Zhang
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黃金和外汇 Nov 4, 2008

allankliu wrote:
基金定投不是很担心,黄金賺钱了!

建议可以操作黄金美元品种(记住,永远不要满仓!)。本年度,黄金一天最大的涨跌幅记录也有4%左右,更加不要作黄金期货,尤其是和欧美有时差的期货,4%放大50倍也让你立马暴仓!


黄金是不错的保值商品,所有投资者都应该在组合中加入一定比例的黄金以备不时之需。在股市和经济平稳的年景,黄金的价格都不会有太大波动,但在危急时刻,却相当于储蓄保险,起到保护作用。最近一段时间,美国和加拿大的投资者大批订购金币,以至金币一度脱销。国内现在也有实金买卖,如有兴趣可以参考,但金银首饰等不在其列。

目前全球股市大跌,人心惶惶,其实也正是入场的好时机。很多投资者在机会到来时,总觉得手中缺钱,就是时机把握不好,投资完全套牢,弹尽粮绝(无钱),只能眼巴巴地看他人买入便宜的优质股票。等价格看涨后,自己还未赚到钱,那些睿智的投资者早已富得流油。

作为自由职业者,为将来打算而投资绝对必要,既然是长线投资,却也不必在乎短期的波动。至于外汇收入,人民币还将持续对主要外币升值,因此除非有投资和消费需要,趁早将汇换为本国货币为佳。至于手中已持有外汇并亏钱的朋友,如不急等用钱,亦可考虑直接投资于以外币结算的投资产品。


 
ysun
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悬念? Nov 8, 2008

redred wrote:

比最近看的suspense-thriller HIDE AND SEEK的结局还悬念。


redred,

经常在此论坛上透露自己的“高价”和“高收入”的还能是谁?


 
ysun
ysun  Identity Verified
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月有阴晴圆缺,人有悲欢离合 Nov 24, 2008

此事古难全。

请看这几个月内的变化:

http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/EUR/graph120.html

http://www.proz.com/kudoz/2752039

Milton Guo wrote:

前天欧元对美元还是1.25,今天已经是1.24(PP兑换率)了,我赶紧把PayPal上的欧元换成美元了.

英镑更惨,幸好MB收到英镑时,自动兑换成美元,不然会更心疼.


 
ysun
ysun  Identity Verified
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Last 30 days EUR per 1 USD Jan 15, 2015

http://www.exchangerate.com/currency-charts/USD/EUR/last-30-days

 
ysun
ysun  Identity Verified
United States
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Last 30 days CNY per 1 USD Aug 12, 2015

http://www.exchangerate.com/currency-charts/USD/CNY/last-30-days/

 
wherestip
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China's Curve Ball Aug 12, 2015

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/12/investing/china-yuan-fed-rate-hike/index.html



China is putting the Fed in a tough spot

China is complicating Janet Yellen's life.

Before U.S. investors went to bed on Monday night, there was growing confidence that the Federal Reserve chief was getting ready to announce the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. Most bets were on a September move.

But on Tuesday, China happened. The country threw a serious curve ball by unexpectedly devaluing its currency.

The move suddenly muddied the outlook for the global economy, raising questions about the Fed's ability to raise rates next month.

China's yuan has taken its biggest two-day tumble in decades and stock markets around the world are in turmoil. The Dow alone has plummeted about 400 points since Monday's close as investors fear the weaker yuan will make goods sold by companies like Apple (AAPL, Tech30) and Coach (COH) less attractive to Chinese consumers. It could also hurt already-weak demand for raw materials like iron ore and copper.

Others say it will lower prices of Chinese imports, which adds deflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

If the global stock market deteriorates further, it could cause Yellen and other Fed officials to put off an interest rate hike beyond September. It's unlikely the Fed wants to add fuel to the fire.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, said if the market turbulence continues, a Fed rate hike "will be destabilizing."

Swonk said the Fed could hold off because it "can't afford to compound volatility too much. As much as they resist the term, they are the world's central bank."

Wall Street is already placing bets that it won't happen. Investors believe there's a 39% chance of a September rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch, which measures futures prices. That's down significantly from 56% just last week.

...



 
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金融危机时期,大家怎么处理外汇收入?






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